Italy: the centre-left after technocracy

Having defined itself by opposition to Berlusconi, the Italian Democratic Party faces tough choices over electoral credibility and political positioning

"Simul stabunt, simul cadent", as the old Latin say goes. "As they were together, they will fall together". This is the imminent risk facing the centre-left Italian Democratic Party (PD) after the “final” fall of Silvio Berlusconi. In recent years the PD’s central message has been very closely focused on attacking “nasty Silvio’s” political survival.  Now, after his ousting, the question is whether ordinary voters will be able to ascertain what the main party of the Italian Left actually stands for, especially since Berlusconi did not fall as a consequence of a political move by the PD, or through an election won by the party.

At the same time, the rise of the Monti government has been seen as something to accept because there are no alternatives.  This too was not the outcome of a successful political move instigated by the PD: although, paradoxically, in the final days of Berlusconi's rule, the party was scoring highly in the polls. Asking for an early election would have been both legitimate and useful, even if the political climate at the time was clouded in fear over the ramifications of the country’s sovereign debt crisis. However, its focus on opposition meant that the PD was not in a position to credibly say "Italy's future will be in safe hands with a government formed by the Democratic Party. So let the Italians vote!". The party had invested all its political energy in taking up a key role in a wide coalition of anti-Berlusconi forces, from the leftist and neo-Communist "Sinistra e Libertà" to the populist movement headed by Antonio Di Pietro. A self-defined "act of responsibility" was therefore its only realistic option, even though it meant granting a confidence vote to a technocratic government backed by their arch-enemy.

And now, what is left for the PD in the era of technocratic governance? Tabling a vote of no confidence in Monti is out of question, for the time being. However, Monti's political agenda, with its clear drive on cutting spending, pension reform and market liberalisation, poses many tough questions for the future of centre-left politics in Italy. On the one hand, Monti's popularity seems steady, even if the social costs of his reforms are not negligible. A large section of the Italian public are still busy comparing his competent and balanced approach to hard economic times with the irresponsible style of government under Berlusconi. A key question is whether the PD will try to enlist the increasingly popular Mr Monti under its flag, thereby sacrificing its own claim to leadership, as well as the role of the party leader Pierluigi Bersani?

On the other hand, however, the main issue is purely political. A sensible pro-market agenda, similar to the one Monti is currently trying to implement, used to be at the core of the Italian centre-left programme of the nineties. However, in recent years this agenda has been subject to intense criticism inside the party, especially since the international financial crisis of 2008-2009 has pushed large parts of the the PD to think that the time has come for the Italian Left to mould itself again on the traditional Left.

This view departs from plans to cut spending, reform pensions and the labour market, move away from traditional unionism, and so on.  The crisis of international capitalism, according to this view, has shown that the role of the centre-left is to retrench into its traditional fields, and leave to someone else (Berlusconi?) the task of revitalizing the fragile national economy through liberal reforms. As a consequence of this back-to-the-origins political shift, it could be difficult for the PD to explain that the tide has once again changed and the aim of a "responsible" centre-left should be that of supporting a renewed pro-market agenda.

The likely exit from this contradiction, and this potentially dangerous political positioning, is for the PD to hold on and wait to see what comes out of the Monti government. After all, this prudent attitude is shared by most Italian parties at the moment: wait and see, and then decide how to re-enter the political arena with a platform based on something more than simply getting rid of Berlusconi.

However, the risk is that when Monti’s work is completed, the Italian political landscape might have changed radically.

If a large part of swinging and absteineeing voters (whose number has exploded in recent years, and continues to grow) decide to return to the polls instead of abstaining, they might decide to give preference to a new party positioned to offer continuity in line with the work of the technocratic government. In this case, the Democratic Party’s quest for a post-Berlusconi political era could be ridden with difficulties.

A contribution to State of the Left - Policy Network's monthly insight bulletin that reports from across the world of social democratic politics

Andrea Romano is professor of Contemporary History at the University of Rome Tor Vergata and director of the think tank Italia Futura – romano@italiafutura.it