Taking on ‘Teflon-Merkel’

The everchanging political colours of Angela Merkel is making life very difficult for Germany’s Social Democrats

At first glance, it looks like 2012 will be a good year for Germany’s opposition Social Democrats. The governing coalition of the conservative CDU/CSU and the neo-liberal FDP is still in miserable condition, with the FDP receiving around 3 per cent in the polls at the moment. The conservative President, Christian Wulff, is embroiled in a scandal for receiving favourable loans and free holiday trips from rich friends. SPD candidates, as a result, stand a good chance against the incumbent conservative Minister-Presidents at the upcoming state elections of Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein, in March and May respectively. This speaks to the fact that the issues most associated with the left are more relevant than ever in a time where the distance between the rich and the poor is rising and deregulated financial capitalism has run out of control.

Despite all this, the SPD still holds less than 30 per cent in most polls, whilst the conservatives have actually gained ground recently, climbing to 36 per cent. Worse still, the Green Party, as the SPD’s desirable coalition partner, is beginning to drop in the polls, albeit at a high level. Chancellor Angela Merkel has, in the meantime, climbed to the top of the politician’s popularity charts since she started to take an active role in fighting the Eurozone crisis. Three out of four Germans find she is doing a good job, though it was her zigzag-course and hesitancy which prolonged and worsened the crisis. It is easy to see why some social democrats are frustrated with standing against “Teflon-Merkel”. The political brain has a short-term memory.

However, we need to understand that Merkel is not only fortunate, but that she is also following a clever strategy. On the one hand, Merkel seems to be firmly focused on the issues, in her role as a mere servant of the public good. Her ‘protestant poverty aesthetic’ does much to successfully camouflage her lack of ideas and direction. On the other hand, Merkel is the anti-Thatcher; the lady is always for turning. The Chancellor is extremely flexible with regard to her political positions, and is able to use this to undercut opposition stances and steal thunder from progressive policies. In 2011 alone, Merkel fundamentally changed her party’s positions on the minimum wage, the tax on financial transactions, compulsory military service, and nuclear energy, as well as changing course repeatedly regarding the European crisis. Parliamentary party leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier referred to this as “Merkel’s law”: “The more determinedly I rule something out, the more certain it is I will do it.”

The SPD is well aware that given her popularity and capacity to bend her policies to suit conditions and public opinion, direct attacks on Merkel are unlikely to work. Social democrats should avoid the natural reflex of opposition, which entails criticizing every initiative of the CDU and CSU in a fundamental way. Instead, the centre-left must focus on defining and strengthening their own alternative concepts – where they exist. With regard to new policies, the SPD still has a lot of work to do. Except for some mild social reforms and an encompassing financial concept, there is almost nothing on the table. Perhaps most crucially, the SPD lacks and must develop an alternative approach with regard to the future of the European Union.

Radiating competence could be the best method of attack against an incompetent government. In this regard, much will depend on how the “Troika” of potential candidates for the federal elections in 2013 cooperates this year: Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Sigmar Gabriel and Peer Steinbrück are rivals, but only together they represent an SPD which is attractive for large parts of the population. It will be crucial to keep the race open as long as possible and to make clear who stands for which part of the social democratic programme. Small contradictions are no problem, and could even interest voters, but the SPD’s defining policies and principles must remain clear and consistent.

The future remains uncertain, and some commentators have speculated that Merkel may even sack the unreliable FDP in order to form a grand coalition with the SPD and take on the European crisis, making the Troika obsolete. As the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung wrote, this scenario may even be in the interest of party chairman Sigmar Gabriel, who could thus strengthen his position in the candidacy race with a government post or as new head of the parliamentary group. German politics in 2012 will be shaped by European, rather than national developments.

A contribution to State of the Left - Policy Network's monthly insight bulletin that reports from across the world of social democratic politics

Michael Miebach is a political scientist and senior editor of the Berliner Republik, a leading German political journal