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State of the Left: Life on Mars?

15 January 2016




Life on Mars?
Scenes already lived, scenarios already written. The situation of Europe’s centre left reminds us of the anguished vision portrayed by David Bowie in his beautiful song Life on Mars? Indeed, from Spain to Ireland, from Sweden to France, social democrats are running out of space and have nowhere to go.
 
In Spain’s general election, challenger parties Ciudadanos and Podemos made huge gains. The country’s politics is now in deadlock, with no new government in sight. Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists have become the pivotal actor in coalition talks, but the party’s position is unenviable. A grand coalition with the centre-right People’s party would be tantamount to electoral suicide. But the alternative – repeat elections – is equally dangerous for Sánchez, with Podemos tactically seeking to exploit the Socialists’ internal divisions in the hope of leapfrogging them and becoming the leading party of the left.
 
France’s established parties are also grappling with how best to react to the populist insurgency after the Front National’s vote share exploded in the recent regional elections. Though the party failed to seize power in any particular area, Marine Le Pen looks increasingly likely to reach the runoff stage of next year’s presidential election. The Socialists are seeking to build a broad church ahead of 2017, attempting to appeal both to their radical flanks and potential centrist allies. Yet no one truly believes the party will be in serious contention.
 
In Ireland, a swathe of independents and other challengers also look set to shake up the forthcoming election, as voters voice their distrust of the traditionally dominant Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. This does not really benefit the Labour party, which is also seen as part of the establishment. The appetite for a so-called ‘new politics’ is all the more overt in Ireland as the insurgents seek to distinguish themselves purely in these terms, rather than making ideologically distinctive appeals.
 
Meanwhile, in Portugal, cracks are already beginning to show in the motley coalition of socialists, democratic anti-capitalists and diehard communists that assembled following the country’s recent election. There is now speculation that the fragmentation of the historically dominant forces will necessitate a redefining of the party system itself.
 
Finally, social democrats are feeling the populist pressure more than ever in Denmark and Sweden, where the predominant issue of Europe’s refugee crisis continues to cast its shadow. Swedish prime minister Stefan Löfven has faced severe criticism from those within his own party after U-turning on the country’s initially welcoming stance. Denmark’s Social Democrats might be leading in the polls, but this comes at a price. Bruised after recently losing office, the party has now rallied around a position of compromise over the issues of immigration, asylum seekers and the welfare system – one which puts them at odds with other leftwing forces.
 
What these painful realities show is that progressives should work hard on forging their own space and conducting themselves on their own terms. By doing so they could be heroes again – and more than just for one day.



SWEDEN
Swedes before Syrians?
Stefan Löfven risks alienating his activist base with drastic measures brought in to deal with the refugee crisis
BY KATRINE MARÇAL

The European Union is boring, bureaucratic and a bit pompous. It is grey. It lacks extremes or drama. It drizzles and mists. We love to complain about it. There is even a queue to join ...

What could be more British than that?

HOPI SEN                                   READ MORE >>
SPAIN
Que será, será … whatever will be
With Spain still in political deadlock, the growing prospect of repeat elections is a dangerous one for Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists
BY JORGE GALINDO ANDSANDRA LEON
DENMARK
Denmark's centre left is in dissaray over the refugee crisis
The response to the growing number of refugees from Syria and other migrants has divided Danish progressives, yet the left-of-centre bloc has made a recent comeback in the polls
BY KRISTIAN WEISE
PORTUGAL
Portugal: a glimpse of the political centre
The state rescue of failing bank has exposed the limits of the tie-in between the Socialists and far-left parties, pointing to a reorganisation of the party system
BY HUGO COELHO
This edition of State of the Left features updates and analysis from Denmark, France,Germany, Ireland, Nigeria, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom



FRANCE
Facing up to the Front National
With Marine Le Pen set to reach the runoff, both the Republicans and Socialists face strategic decisions about how best to approach next year’s French presidential election
BY JOCELYN EVANS AND GILLES IVALDI             


GERMANY
SPD leadership: no obvious challenger in sight
Sigmar Gabriel should brush off questions over his leadership and capitalise on party support for his centre-orientated reform strategy
BY LAURA KRAUSE ANDFLORIAN RANFT


UNITED KINGDOM
The Brexit vote: it’s neck and neck
This year’s referendum leaves Britain perilously close to leaving Europe
BY HOPI SEN                              


IRELAND
Ireland’s ‘new normal’ politics
An insurgency of independents and anti-establishment parties could lead to a period of instability following Ireland’s forthcoming election
BY EOIN O'MALLEY                   


FURTHER AFIELD: NIGERA
The Buhari administration: a new beginning for Nigeria?
Nigeria’s new president has a chance to transform the country into a model social democratic nation
BY VITTORIO TREVIT                                 READ MORE >>




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